Farmer confidence has flipped to its highest level in a decade, according to the latest Federated Farmer survey, having flopped from the worst it has ever been.
Waikato president Keith Holmes says the “stupid narrative” of breaking-even must stop.
But the results of the latest national farm confidence survey had the feeling of a false summer, to Waikato Federated Farmers president Keith Holmes.
“While I agree with the general survey results, there is nothing internationally to suggest that we are in a period of prolonged economic and political stability,” he said.
“Nor are farmers making a profit. Many more will be able to pay their bills but in actual fact they are still mining their balance sheets, which is a very serious non sustainable predicament for New Zealand.”
Farmer confidence in economic conditions surged from -66 per cent in July 2024 to a net positive score of two per cent in January 2025. It was the largest one-off improvement since the question was introduced to the survey in 2016.
A net 23 per cent of farmers expect better economic conditions over the next year – the highest confidence level since January 2014.
There has also been a sharp lift in profitability, with 54 per cent of farmers now reporting making a profit – equating to double the number in the last survey six months ago.
Christopher Luxon
Federated Farmers national president Wayne Langford, who only last year led the Restoring Farmer Confidence tour with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, said he had noticed a significant shift in the mood of rural New Zealand.
“The last few years have been bloody tough for a lot of our farming families, with falling incomes, rising interest rates and unpaid bills starting to pile up on the kitchen bench.
“At the same time, we’ve also been struggling with an incredibly challenging regulatory environment and farming rules that haven’t always been practical, affordable or fair.
“These survey results paint a clear picture of a sector finally able to breathe a sigh of relief as some of that weight is lifted.”
The survey results show regulation and compliance costs remains the greatest concern for farmers, followed by interest rates and banks, and input costs.
The survey shows farmers’ highest priorities for the government are the economy and business environment, fiscal policy, and reducing regulatory burdens.
“If the government are serious about their ambitious growth agenda and doubling exports over the next decade, this is where they need to be focusing their energy,” Langford said.
“For farmers to have the confidence to invest in our businesses, employ more staff, and grow our economy, we need to have confidence in our direction of travel as a nation too.
“As a country, we’re never going be able to regulate our way to prosperity, but with the right policy settings, we might just be able to farm our way there.”
The Key points
General economic conditions (current):
Farmer confidence has surged by 68 points since July 2024, rebounding from a deeply negative -66 per cent to a net positive score of two per cent. This marks the largest one-off improvement since the question was introduced in 2016.
General economic conditions (expectations):
Optimism is rising. Net expectations have increased 29 points since January 2024. A net 23 per cent of farmers now anticipate better conditions over the next year – the highest confidence level seen since January 2014.
Farm profitability (current):
The number of farmers making a profit has doubled since the last survey, and 54 per cent report a profit – up from just 27 per cent. The net profitability score has surged by 60 points, the strongest turnaround since July 2022.
Farm profitability (expectations):
Confidence in future profitability continues to climb. A net 31 per cent of farmers expect improvement over the next 12 months – a 41-point increase since July 2024. This is the highest forward-looking profitability score since July 2017.
Farm production (expectations):
A net 16 per cent of farmers expect production to increase in the next year, extending a positive trend. It is the first time since 2016-17 that there have been three consecutive periods of predicted growth.
Farm spending (expectations):
Spending intentions have strengthened. A net 23 per cent of farmers plan to increase spending over the next 12 months – up 26 points from July 2024. This is the strongest expected rise since January 2023.
Farm debt (expectations):
41 per cent of farmers plan to reduce their debt in the next year, up from 23 per cent in July 2024. Lower interest rates, improved confidence, and stronger production forecasts are driving this shift.
Ability to recruit (experienced):
Hiring challenges persist, and a net 16 per cent of respondents reported difficulty recruiting skilled staff in the past six months, largely unchanged from July 2024. However, this is the least difficult period for recruitment since July 2012.
Greatest concerns (current):
The top concerns for farmers remain regulation and compliance costs, debt, interest and banks, and input costs.
Highest government priorities:
Farmers want the government to prioritise the economy and business environment, fiscal policy, and reducing regulatory burdens.
